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{"id":7369,"date":"2020-10-13T18:02:10","date_gmt":"2020-10-13T21:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitcointoyou.com\/blog2\/categoria-2\/perspectiva-economica-analise-do-boletim-focus-13-10\/"},"modified":"2020-10-13T18:02:10","modified_gmt":"2020-10-13T21:02:10","slug":"perspectiva-economica-analise-do-boletim-focus-13-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bitcointoyou.com\/blog\/nova-economia\/perspectiva-economica-analise-do-boletim-focus-13-10\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectiva econ\u00f4mica – (13\/10)"},"content":{"rendered":"

An\u00e1lise do Boletim Focus <\/span><\/h2>\n

A economia do Brasil segue em recupera\u00e7\u00e3o, embora nas \u00faltimas semanas pudemos acompanhar uma desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o ainda maior do <\/span>real<\/b> frente ao <\/span>d\u00f3lar.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

No mundo, a not\u00edcia da interrup\u00e7\u00e3o dos testes da vacina da <\/span>Johnson&Johnson<\/span><\/a> fizeram as bolsas despencar.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A decis\u00e3o de interromper os testes aconteceu ap\u00f3s um dos volunt\u00e1rios apresentar uma doen\u00e7a inexplic\u00e1vel.<\/span><\/p>\n

No Brasil, a<\/span> infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/b> ainda vem ganhando destaque nos notici\u00e1rios. Portanto, a expectativa tanto do <\/span>IPCA<\/b> quanto do <\/span>IGP-M<\/b> aumentaram nesta semana.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Quer saber mais? Confira a nossa an\u00e1lise do Boletim Focus publicado nesta ter\u00e7a-feira, 13 de outubro.<\/span><\/p>\n

Crescimento do PIB<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

As proje\u00e7\u00f5es de crescimento do <\/span>PIB<\/b> mantiveram-se est\u00e1veis na vis\u00e3o dos analistas de mercado.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Na semana passada, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es eram de um recuo de 5,02%. Nesta semana o recuo estimado foi de 5,03%.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u00e1 quatro semanas atr\u00e1s, a estimativa era de que o PIB fosse fechar o ano em -5,11%.<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Como \u00e9 poss\u00edvel ver, o mercado segue cauteloso, por\u00e9m otimista em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao <\/span>crescimento do Brasil.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Para 2021 as proje\u00e7\u00f5es de crescimento de 3,5% se mantiveram, assim como o crescimento de 2,5% para o ano de 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

No entanto, ainda \u00e9 cedo para saber como ser\u00e1 o comportamento da economia nos pr\u00f3ximos anos, visto o desconhecimento da evolu\u00e7\u00e3o da pandemia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

A<\/span> infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/b> vem em constante alta nas \u00faltimas semanas. No m\u00eas de setembro o <\/span>IPCA<\/b> superou os 2%. Patamar que n\u00e3o era atingido desde abril.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dessa forma, os analistas de mercado acreditam que o indicador dever\u00e1 fechar o ano em 2,67%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Contudo, conforme j\u00e1 falamos nos relat\u00f3rios anteriores, essas proje\u00e7\u00f5es poder\u00e3o continuar crescendo dependendo do comportamento do pre\u00e7o dos alimentos.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u00e1 quatro semanas atr\u00e1s, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o IPCA eram de 1,95%.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

J\u00e1, o <\/span>IGP-M<\/b> que \u00e9 a <\/span>infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/b> medida pela Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Get\u00falio Vargas (FGV) tamb\u00e9m aumentou.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A expectativa \u00e9 que o indicador feche o ano em 16,93%.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Na semana passada, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es eram de 16,59% e h\u00e1 quatro semanas eram de 15,03%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ambos os indicadores medem a infla\u00e7\u00e3o, embora utilizem metodologias diferentes para isso.<\/span><\/p>\n

O <\/span>IPCA<\/b> considera nove categorias de produtos e servi\u00e7os que refletem o h\u00e1bito de consumo de 90% das fam\u00edlias brasileiras.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

J\u00e1 o IGP-M \u00e9 composto pela m\u00e9dia aritm\u00e9tica de mais tr\u00eas \u00edndices:<\/span><\/p>\n

O \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Produtor Amplo (IPA), o \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor (IPC) e o \u00cdndice Nacional de Custo da Constru\u00e7\u00e3o (INCC).<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Portanto, o ritmo de crescimento do IGP-M bem acima do IPCA nos \u00faltimos doze meses tem como principal explica\u00e7\u00e3o a sua correla\u00e7\u00e3o com o d\u00f3lar.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taxa de juros e Taxa de C\u00e2mbio<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

A <\/span>Taxa Selic<\/b> que foi mantida em 2% na \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o do <\/span>Copom<\/b> continua sendo projetada para fechar o ano no mesmo patamar.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A expectativa, por\u00e9m, \u00e9 que em 2021 ela dever\u00e1 aumentar para 2,50% e em 2022 para 4,50%, mostrando uma trajet\u00f3ria de crescimento no longo prazo.<\/span><\/p>\n

J\u00e1 o <\/span>c\u00e2mbio<\/b> dever\u00e1 fazer o caminho oposto. A expectativa \u00e9 que o <\/span>d\u00f3lar<\/b> vire 2020 cotado a R$ 5,30 e em 2021 seja cotado a R$ 5,10.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Houve, portanto, uma piora na expectativa da taxa de c\u00e2mbio nesta \u00faltima semana. A explica\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 a desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o vista nos \u00faltimos dias.<\/span><\/p>\n

Como a expectativa de queda do c\u00e2mbio \u00e9 pequena, o cen\u00e1rio continua favor\u00e1vel para investimentos em fundos internacionais e para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Produ\u00e7\u00e3o Industrial<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

J\u00e1 a proje\u00e7\u00e3o para a <\/span>Produ\u00e7\u00e3o Industrial<\/b> melhorou nesta semana. Com o mercado acreditando em uma retra\u00e7\u00e3o de 6,00% do setor.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Na semana passada, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es eram de queda de 6,30%. Portanto, houve uma leve melhora na expectativa.<\/span><\/p>\n

J\u00e1 em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos <\/span>investimentos diretos<\/b> feitos no pa\u00eds a expectativa piorou. Ela saiu de 51,26 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares na semana passada para 50 bilh\u00f5es nesta semana.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Isso mostra que ainda h\u00e1 uma certa inseguran\u00e7a sobre o rumo da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e fiscal dentro do pa\u00eds.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoin e criptomoedas<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Enquanto a economia segue sobre incertezas, o <\/span>Bitcoin<\/b> iniciou a semana (13\/10) com todos os indicadores apontando o momento para compra.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

O destaque vai para os indicadores de <\/span>m\u00e9dia m\u00f3veis.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

No total de 17 indicadores, 15 apontam o momento para compra, enquanto 1 aponta para manuten\u00e7\u00e3o e 1 para venda.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

A <\/span>criptomoeda<\/b> continua em uma trajet\u00f3ria ascendente. Em menos de cinco dias a sua valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o chegou a quase 6%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Portanto, por se tratar da principal criptomoeda do mundo, \u00e9 poss\u00edvel que o <\/span>Bitcoin<\/b> vai puxar junto a <\/span>cota\u00e7\u00e3o das demais criptomoedas.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Mostrando assim que essa pode ser uma boa op\u00e7\u00e3o de investimentos neste momento.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Esse foi o nosso <\/span>giro econ\u00f4mico<\/b> da semana. Trazendo expectativas sobre investimentos e cen\u00e1rios futuros. Fique ligado que semana que vem tem mais.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An\u00e1lise do Boletim Focus A economia do Brasil segue em recupera\u00e7\u00e3o, embora nas \u00faltimas semanas pudemos acompanhar uma desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o ainda maior do real frente ao … Leia mais<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":2603,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[118,119,166,163,164,165],"class_list":["post-7369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nova-economia","tag-bitcoin","tag-criptomoedas","tag-economia","tag-ipca","tag-pib","tag-taxa-selic","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"yoast_head":"\nPerspectiva econ\u00f4mica - (13\/10)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An\u00e1lise do Boletim Focus A economia do Brasil segue em recupera\u00e7\u00e3o, embora nas \u00faltimas semanas pudemos acompanhar uma desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o ainda maior do real\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcointoyou.com\/blog\/nova-economia\/perspectiva-economica-analise-do-boletim-focus-13-10\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Perspectiva econ\u00f4mica - 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